Enwright March Madness Bracket Model

This is a step away from the oil and gas analysis, and instead focus on what is actually being discussed at the water cooler this week…the bracket for the March Madness tournament. I’ve been building out this model since 2010, honing and improving on it until getting it right in 2019 when I came third in a Google-sponsored bracket challenge. So all that work over the last fifteen years…and then I cross-referenced it with 30 minutes of ChatGPT to get more or less the same rating. Sweet.

With all of my own analysis and the deep dive that ChatGPT arrived at, here is my March Madness model.

A couple ways to check out the power ratings in action. Under the "Bracket" tab, click the "Press F9" button. If the macros are disabled, press the F9 key on your keyboard to run the simulated bracket. As well, there are a couple ratings to check out. There is the "PE Rating" which is my rating drawn from offensive and defensive metrics as well as other rating systems, and there's the "PlayNow Rating", which uses the point spread for the opening round games to determine what the Las Vegas oddsmakers are anticipating. Lastly, the"Combined Rating" is the 50/50 blend of the two rating systems.

Alternatively, under the "2025_elo" tab, the selected rating scheme is run through an elo system where the winning team effectively gets awarded for the forecasted margin of victory during each round.

So what do the results say? From my best guess of the Vegas oddsmakers rating, Duke, Florida, Alabama, and St. John's represent the top 4 teams in the tournament, though the Midwest region is the lowest rated region with Clemson (not Houston) as the top pick.

For my rating system, the weighted results arrived at Florida, Houston, Duke, Gonzaga (love me some efficiency metrics), Maryland and Auburn.

Lastly, the big upset picks that I’m forecasting for the opening round include:

• (12) Colorado St over (5) Memphis

• (14) Lipscomb over (3) Iowa St

• (13) Yale over (4) Texas A&M

• (13) High Point over (4) Purdue

• (10) Arkansas over (7) Kansas

So there you go. If you’re struggling with a few picks for your bracket, it’s time to download, press the F9 key and watch the bracket simulate. Happy bracketing.