A quick note ahead of Thursday’s earnings call for Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR). Fourth quarter guidance is projected to achieve ~180Mboepd with capital spend of ~$390MM, totaling $1.2B to close out 2025. These figures reflect management’s previously communicated outlook and should not be interpreted as updated guidance. MUR has indicated no well completions would be scheduled for 4Q25, suggesting that near-term operational commentary is likely to focus on ongoing onshore and offshore drilling activity, with 2026 execution and capital priorities expected to be the operational topics of discussion.

MUR has not provided explicit capital expenditure guidance for 2026. The following discussion reflects analyst estimates only, derived from the company’s disclosed project timelines, inventory depth, and historical spending patterns, and does not represent management targets. On this basis, estimated offshore activity is anticipated to increase YoY from ~$400MM to potentially as high as ~$600MM in 2026, driven by development-weighted spending in the Gulf of America and Vietnam, alongside two additional wells planned for drilling in Cote d’Ivoire. In my view, offshore development serves as the growth driver for MUR, while onshore development serves as the cashflow engine. FY26 estimates for MUR’s Eagle Ford development include the drilling and completion of 31 wells, while utilizing ~2 rigs through the course of the year and totaling ~$450MM. For Canada, drilling cadence is forecasted to be 1H26 focused with an average of 2 rigs working between Tupper and Kaybob. My forecast calls for 14-15 wells to be drilled and completed, with completion cadence expected to be spread across 2Q to 4Q26 and totaling ~$250MM.

MUR’s earnings call is Thursday morning at 7:00AM MT. Please follow the link below should you wish to listen to the 4Q25 earnings call.

Financial & Operational Model Estimates

Planning for retirement raises many questions. Have you considered how much it will cost, and how you’ll generate the income you’ll need to pay for it? For many, these questions can feel overwhelming, but answering them is a crucial step forward for a comfortable future.

Start by understanding your goals, estimating your expenses and identifying potential income streams. The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income can help you navigate these essential questions. If you have $1,000,000 or more saved for retirement, download your free guide today to learn how to build a clear and effective retirement income plan. Discover ways to align your portfolio with your long-term goals, so you can reach the future you deserve.

Get The Guide

Companies Mentioned

_{Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Patrick Enwright accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Patrick Enwright makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.}